Covered Warrants - The Not So Silent Killer

by Salvador Dali

One should never never punt on warrants with less than 1 year to expiry, especially covered warrants. I can safely bet that anyone who trades in covered warrants in the course of a year will have a 90% chance to sustain losses. 

Unfortunately, our markets have been in the doldrums for the past 6 months or so and that has caused some die hard players to only consider covered warrants, esp those index covered ones, in particular the highly volatile HSI covered (which kind of acts as a proxy to the even more volatile China exchanges).

Just have a look at the daily volume rankings, its always the covered warrants for the past few months. Strange as it may seem, if things continue, our local exchange will be trading mostly other countries' covered index warrants for the longest time - esp if the big guys introduce the Nikkei covered as well.

Why investors will lose big in the long run:

1) Time Value - These covered warrants are usually short in terms of time to expiry, usually less than 12 months. Investors are usually lured into covered warrants when their absolute price are less than 30-40 sen because they think they get a lot of leverage. But to get to 30-40 sen, it also usually meant that there is less than 6 months to expiry, and trust me, the time value diminishes rapidly. Even if the linked product stays stationary, you will find the price of the CW dropping.

2) Your opponent - Unlike a company's warrant, in CWs there are teams of experienced traders (issuers) with sophisticated models fighting you on the other side. If you think the role of issuing house is to MANAGE their gammas and betas, YOU'D be very wrong. The safest way to make money for issuers is just to manage and capture the premium, manage free float, and make sure you are well hedged. MUCH LIKE THE CASINOS - they almost never ever lose... so guess who wins and loses in the end. Better to go Genting, seriously.

Even when you keep wanting to buy, they will keep giving you the volume to buy. They can keep throwing new shares at you as long as the equation is right. What you see on the screen being offered is never what they "really can sell" to you.

3) Volatility - The die hards will say they trade only the highly volatile CWs such as HSI. Yes, thats a better strategy but I can also tell you that the higher the volatility, the higher the premium that is priced into these CWs, and it will take a hefty whack in movement to erase the premium before you see good gains.

4) One Sided - You know very well the issuers KNOW you can only take ONE SIDE of the equation. So overtime you show up on the screen, either you are buying or buying. At any point in time, they know how many people are long or short out there. Imagine playing black/red, but you can only bet red and the odds are always 0.7 to one instead of 1 to 1.

5) Timing - The nature of the product necessitates the need to TIME your entry point accurately. So, unless you are the type that can walk between raindrops to avoid getting wet - fergedaboudit.

The next time you think of trading a CW... just picture the trading/hedging teams at the banks, you can almost invariably see them laughing and chuckling to themselves at how easy it is to make money from the market (that means you and me).


p/s my first 8 years of my career was spent placing, trading and managing the house book on Japanese corporate warrants for Nomura and James Capel

List of Listed Companies with –NTA (as at 08-12-2016)

List of Listed Companies with –NTA (as at 08-12-2016)

Code	Stock	NTA	Status	Remark
0141	WINTONI	-0.002	Active
0039	ASIAEP	-0.013	Suspended
0110	RA	-0.026	Suspended
0135	SCN	-0.0422	Suspended
7122	YFG	-0.08	Active
0022	CYBERT	-0.09	Suspended
8303	KFM	-0.16	Active
7002	NAKA	-0.28	Active
2887	LIONDIV	-0.29	Active
7027	PETONE	-2.073	Suspended
5146	PERWAJA	-3.50	Active	-3.50!!! Still there!!! Why ah?

The purpose of writing this article is to share my thinking of some observations on the companies listed above and the lesson that we can learn from it. First, see what you see before I highlight to you what I see. Just highlight, I don’t want to waste too much time to explain. I usually don’t like to write stocks that I’m not interested to own. I also don’t like to write article to ask to sell certain stocks, even though most of the time I’m able "to predict" the right timing to do so. 马后炮？哈哈哈！   

1.  High risk high return? Yes, sometime, but perhaps just once and definitely not all the time. When investing in stocks, to me, risks come first. Many retail investors don’t even know what’s the risk in their stock investment. Are you? But I’m very sure a lot of them don’t even bother to know about it. Take a look at the stock that has –RM3.50 of NTA per share. By the way, why such a company that should have gone bankrupt long long time ago and yet still traded actively until now?

2. What is the fair value of a stock? How to value a stock? Does the current price reflect its’ value? Is the stock undervalued or overvalued? What determine the price and who has the ability “to fix” price?

3. Pump and dump? What does it means? This kind of stock manipulation always happened. This is how some greedy and irresponsible individuals/parties make money at the expense of some innocent retail investors.

4. On NTA. What does it mean? What does it mean if price > NTA or price < NTA? You can think about it with the following examples:

0138 MYEG: P=2.23 > NTA=0.18 ( so good meh, another bonus issues coming soon)

6399 ASTRO: P=2.73 > NTA=0.113 (note: good dividend? take a look at capital and reserves)

6947 DIGI: P=4.98 > NTA=0.08 (why so many investors like this?)

5155 XINQUAN: P=0.11 < NTA=1.84 (a lot kena trapped here)

4596 SAPRES: P=0.925 > NTA=3.63 (look very interesting, but…)

6548 MPCORP: P=0.12 < NTA=0.50 (buy calls repeatedly come from someone)

5. On leverage. The amount of debt used to finance a firm's assets. Look at the balance sheet, 8 or 9 out of 10 GLCs and more than half of Bursa listed companies use this. The amount of debts used in most businesses getting bigger and bigger. The justification: growing business with borrowed money can make more profit and so the ROE can be made higher. Yes, some is, and only those genuining. The risk is on those who are not. How to know which one is and which one is not. Until a time that some cannot grow anymore with debt, or they find no way to borrow money or to roll old one with new one, then they come to the shareholders, the so-called de-leveraging/ restructuring: Rights issues , consolidation and rights issues, rights issues with free warrants, rights issues with bonus issues, private placements, backdoor listing, IPOs, etc.

Examples：

7143 Stone: last year rights issues with free warrant, now PN17.

1171 MBSB: 3 times rights issues within 5 years. Look at the liabilities side. Btw, there are few “buy calls” recently.

3876 MAS: 3 times rights issues before privatized by the govt.

0039 ASIAEP: Proposed Capital Reduction and Proposed Consolidation, Proposed Share Exchange (what is this???)

And many more to come. 

Ok, too many issues with many examples for us to think about it or to learn something from it. With these understandings, there is also no guarantee that you’ll make money from stock investment. Without these understandings, 钱亏了，还傻傻不知道发生什么事。Enough for this article. My plan for next article: My Stock Selection Based on NTA, EPS, and Expectation. Filter all and understand what cannot buy, then when the right timing come, you know what to buy. Just a plan, don’t know whether got time and mood to write to share or not. Stay tuned, anyway.      

Just for sharing.

By Bugle

HEXZA: 2017年包赚钱的公司！

小弟的文章：HEXZA: 2016年最值得期待的十大价值股之一， http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Bugle/90320.jsp 阅读次数破万！当时我写，重点是：当它的股价被低估时！在此希望有缘人因阅读了小弟的文章，得到了额外的分析资讯 ，当机立断，买到一些便宜票。

(免责声明：要买/要卖，什么价钱买，什么价钱卖，不关我事。小弟吹水吧了，买卖决定之后果，自负！）

过后，公司有新的进展。我得空无聊，再写一篇：HEXZA: A Sure Profitable Company in 2017 and the Years that Follow，http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Bugle/107246.jsp 。重点是：2017年，它是一间包赚钱的公司！Note: 26-10-2016写的文章，当时2017年第一季的业绩还没公布。

股息四分半，18-11-2016除权后，股价并没有因此而套利走软。令股东感到兴奋的是当天公布的亮丽业绩。

21-11-2016，星期一早上开市，看到很多人争先恐后的抢着要买。相信当中应该有“老虎 ”出现了，而且还“大口大口的吃”，吃了还不放! 哈哈，会用到“老虎”这个名词，是因为有个朋友写了以下这一段：

“Super_SKL ya, you're right! But I sensed that a lot of "tigers" here. In malay, it means "harimau-harimau" or the short form "hari-hari mau" hahaha! Just a joke. The point is: expect the financial result to be released on this Friday, a very good one! Just the appetite of the tiger here is not as big as expected. But don't worry, after this Friday, or from next Monday onward, the big harimau will come out and big mouth big mouth eat. Eat or be eaten?” 15/11/2016 12:28

我的回应：bugle haha, 你很搞笑咧! 常理：一般人看到老虎：RUN! 吃或被吃？ 哈哈! 我明白你的意思。如果这里有你所谓的“tiger”，相信很多人会很兴奋! Eat=买，be eaten=卖，RUN=？ 都是选择。你的呢？15/11/2016 12:57

虽然觉得他/她很搞笑，但重点是Super_SKL也是有先见之明的，不是马后炮。我在想，或许他就是其中的一只老虎。会不会有“鳄鱼”出现？哈哈哈！

好了，长话短说，写此文章的重点是想提出一些问题让自己去思考:  如此素质的公司，应该值多少？我个人觉得它不止这个价钱。是我高估了它，还是Mr Market低估了它？没关系，不急着要知道答案。反正2017年，HEXZA是一间包赚钱的公司！就等多一年，等看了明年股息，再作检讨。 

Just for sharing. 

By Bugle

Note: "变“，是市场唯一不变的定律。 The end result depends how one response to change. 

HEXZA: A Hint on the Change of Dividend Policy?

Since 2000, HEXZA has been paying First and Final Dividend in the end of every financial years up to 2015. This year, as shown in Bursa's website, it is FINAL DIVIDEND! Is it a mistake or a hint on the change of dividend policy? If it's not a mistake, would this suggests that the company is going to pay dividends twice a year or more onwards? 

Similar hints for other companies can be found from Bursa's website. For example, POHUAT, which later proved to be true.

As HEXZA's profits are expected to increase for the coming years, I think it's very likely that the BOD will be considering something to reward the shareholders, like special dividend and/or bonus. Why not? If so, all shareholders will be happy and even more appreciate as shareholders of HEXZA. All are winners: the substantial shareholders, the loyal shareholders, the minority shareholders. The only loser: the one who's thinking to buy shares of HEXZA, but for whatever reasons, didn't!

Lastly, believe it or not, a hint on the change of dividend policy?

Just for sharing.

By Bugle

A Note on the Difference between Interim Dividend and Final Dividend

Companies at the end of a reporting period may choose to declare dividends to its shareholders as part of the distribution of profits that it makes. Dividend is proposed by the board of directors of the company and approved by its shareholders at the AGM.

Dividends can however be paid once or twice a year depending on the policy of the company. When a company decides to pay dividends twice a year it pays an interim dividend at some time before the end of its financial year and then a final dividend at the end of the financial year.

HEXZA: A Sure Profitable Company in 2017 and the Years that Follow

How do we know that the company is going make more profit in 2017 than the previous year?

First, HEXZA made an announcement on 20-10-2016 regarding the PROPOSED DISPOSAL OF LEASEHOLD INDUSTRIAL LAND AND BUILDINGS BY NORSECHEM RESINS SDN. BERHAD.

The disposal is expected to contribute to a net gain on disposal of about RM6.6 million to the Group, of which shall increase the Group’s earnings per share for the financial year ending 30th June 2017 by about 3.3 cents.

Second, from the company announcement dated 4-12-2015, reproduced as below:

The company has invested more than RM60 mil in quoted securities.  From here, we know that the company will make more money from the dividends and interest income. Last year, total interest income and dividend income was about RM6.8 mil and RM3.1 mil, respectively. If we assume about the same amount to be received this year, it may contribute earning per share by about 5 cents.

Third, the Sale & Purchase and Lease Agreement of power generation system with Tembusu Industries Pte. Ltd. The monthly rental of USD130,205.00 or equivalent to RM546861.00 (assuming exchange rate = 4.2), or RM6.5 mil per year. This investment may contribute earning per share by another 3.3 cents.

To make it short, simple calculation of the 3 items above already show a projected EPS of at least 12 cents for financial year 2017. How about the profit to be made from its ordinary businesses?  That, let’s wait and see the company’s financial result in the coming quarters.

Good luck to all HEXZA’s shareholders!

Just for sharing.

By Bugle

Cash on hand, the ultimate buffer

By Billy Toh / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 25, 2016 : 10:41 AM MYT 

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 25, 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: The slowdown in the property sector has prolonged for over a year. Most analysts opine that the weak consumer sentiment and banks’ stringent lending policy will continue to pose earnings risk to property developers.

Even after Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent cut in the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points, analysts are not convinced that the move will be enough to revive much of the property market.

The question of how resilient property companies are still lingering among the investing fraternity.

“We think it is important for property companies to have a strong balance sheet, cash and flexibility to weather the downturn of the market,” said TA Securities’ analyst Thiam Chiann Wen.

Indeed, cash is king in times of uncertainties. A sizable cash pile would be a good buffer against the fall in sale revenues.

A random check on 32 property companies with a market capitalisation between RM300 million to RM2 billion, only six companies’ cash ratio is higher than one.

The six are SHL Consolidated Bhd, Plentitude Bhd, TAHPS Group Bhd, Land & General Bhd (L&G), Amcorp Properties Bhd and Daiman Development Bhd. Tambun Indah Land Bhd’s cash ratio is at 0.99 based on the latest balance sheet. (see chart)

Cash ratio is a gauge of companies’ ability to cover their short-term liabilities.

L&G is among the few companies that has a cash ratio of higher than one, at 2.22 times, indicating more than sufficient cash on hand to pay off short-term debt.

L&G is on a net cash position of RM288.5 million, which is 67.4% of its current market capitalisation of RM427.9 million.

The company’s cash pile had grown significantly to RM525.9 million as of March 31, 2016 from RM398.3 million a year ago. In fact, the cash pile has more than doubled from RM183.8 million two years ago.

On the other side of its balance sheet, L&G’s borrowing was at RM83.1 million as at March 31.

As for companies’ prospects, L&G had, at the beginning of this year, planned to launch three developments with an estimated total gross development value (GDV) of RM1.67 billion. The launches are the Astoria serviced apartments in Ampang, phase 2 of the Damansara Foresta service apartments in Bandar Seri Damansara and the first phase of landed development, Taman Sena in Seremban.

The group’s net profit for fourth quarter financial year ended March 31, 2016 (4QFY16) was close to eight times higher at RM55 million from RM7.1 million in 4QFY15. The company has been profitable in the last ten years.

Like other property stocks, L&G’s share price has tumbled from its five-year high of 62.9 sen in August 2014 to a low of 33.5 sen in March this year.

L&G has declared dividend regularly since 2014. On May 30, the board declared a single-tier final dividend of two sen, reflecting a dividend yield of about 5.12% — even higher than some of the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) on Bursa Malaysia.

Meanwhile, SHL Consolidated has the highest cash ratio at 3.25 times among the companies under review. It also has a trailing dividend yield of 7.43%.

SHL Consolidated is rather unique with its build-then-sell (BTS) business model. Because of the BTS model, the company needs to maintain a strong balance sheet. It is mainly on affordable housing — one segment that analysts believe will continue to see demand despite the slowdown.

While it is still early to say if the company will continue with its dividend payout, SHL Consolidated’s cash balance at RM305.9 million is expected to strengthen its financial footing in current slowdown.

The company’s management has managed to reserve more cash while meeting its dividend payout ratio of at least 70% for the past three years, at least.

Nonetheless, the slowdown in the property market led to the decline of 19% in its net profit to RM84.54 million, or 34.92 sen per share, for the financial year ended March 31, 2016 (FY16) from RM104.56 million, 43.19 sen per share, the year before.

Interestingly, SHL Consolidated’s share price is considered rather resilient compared with its peers in the property industry. The stock has been hovering in the band between RM2.80 and RM3.40 since 2015. It was last traded at RM2.97. Year to date, SHL Consolidated has gained by 2.07%.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/cash-hand-ultimate-buffer

講股

股市投資看似容易，惟若要從股市賺錢，卻是不簡單，因為它需要考量諸多因素，非常專業。

股市前輩有說，在股市買賣交易股票，不論是投資或短線投機，都是非常專業的金融操作，個中涉及各項條件與因素，豈止有錢好辦事這般簡單，它涉及諸多專業知識、技巧、能力、甚至是人際或與市場人士關係和實力。

 

拿個較新例子，單單是要解釋ValueCap注入200億令吉購買低估股，投資者的初步解析都可以有很多可能；

*這包括它的錢是否已投資完了，需要新資金的注入；

*它的舊投資開始跌虧了，需要新資金注入來解救舊資金，使它能夠轉虧為盈，做好賺錢的美麗賬目以好交待；

*馬股已經低估，需要新資金投資賺更多錢；

*馬股已經過高估了，即要下跌了，預先準備好資金來買便宜低估股票；

*對馬股有信心，所以需要更多錢買進賺錢；

*又或是對馬股沒有信心，股價要看跌了，做好準備掏底，撐市自保；

*或是還有其他更多更多的可能和想像空間......。

最終确實的個中理由，ValueCap當然知道到底是哪個原因，也當然不會全盤托出眾告天下，不然壞了它的股市買低估股大事，上演股市大戶反而給看透了的小魚吃了一餐飽，那才是衰透兼無趣。特別是有時大戶也有本身的難處，想想看，要打理大筆資本及從中賺錢，它本身就是項不簡單的任務。

大戶是賺多輸少專家

ValueCap資本及後台雄厚，並是股市大戶，還有政府撐腰做後盾，在這樣的情況下，若長遠計可說是勝算較高及處於較好的優勢，其實，大戶就是賺多輸少的專家，通常散戶就是它們其中源源不絕的財富來源之一。

無論你選擇那項理由，都有可能或不可能，最令人頭痛的是，政府在ValueCap注資課題上，僅是宣佈了其中一點情況，尚存諸多疑惑。

這就是股市錢不易賺的其中最難處，好比“神龍見首不見尾”，所以，股市前輩說，在股市輸錢的，往往是只知道其中一點資訊的人，特別是信息最缺的散戶。

買股不能單靠“勇”字

投資股市也不能單靠心頭上的一個“勇”字即可，投資心理素質要好、性格性情要好、投資知識充實及技巧要好等等條件，才較可能從股市賺錢。買賣股市賺錢不易，雖然它看起來，像是彈指般的容易輕鬆。

股市投資，一旦選錯或剖析錯誤，市場是沒有人情講，唯一的處罰就是輸錢。

前輩有說，散戶唯一能夠戰勝大戶的個中辨法，就是回歸基本面，做好功課定下目標，堅持執行投資策略，不為短期暫時的諸多市場噪音所動，擁有本身的見解（可要确保是正确的見解或剖析），才有可能從大戶口中的牙縫找到一些余剩小利，惟這對小戶來說，可能已經足矣！（星洲日報／焦點評析‧作者：李文龍）

2015-10-13

點看全文:http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/124212?tid=17#ixzz3oWeCT4AR 

大起大落 vs 平淡的生活

得空无聊，思考着一个问题--> 人生: 衣吃住行，生老病死，喜怒哀乐，名利权益...

思索的范围很广！小“我”，大“我”，我思故我在。哈！我还活着。

Google一下人生，百度一下人生，...开始有点头绪...

"生活是物质生活和精神生活的总称。物质生活是人生活上的基本需要，精神生活则是人们在得到了物质生活后，所追求的另一种精神寄托。"

印顺法师:“人生的意义何在？”这是个大问题。人从有生以来，很快的老了，死了；在生老病死的过程中，忙着工作，也忙着吃，忙着穿……这到底为了什么？到底有什么意义？谜一样的问题，在儿童，在浑浑噩噩、顺从社会习惯而过着一生，不会想到这一问题的，固然是有的。但感受敏捷的，或环境恶劣，事业挫折，身体受到病苦侵袭，失去一分，甚至失去了一切希望。那时，这个问题——这一生到底为了什么，忙些什么，就会涌现心头。虽然问题的偶然想起，或一直萦回脑际，并不能解决，还是不得不一直忙下去——忙着工作，忙着吃，忙着穿……唉!到底“人生的意义何在？”

"人最怕的就是陷入一种状态，即固执地追问人生的意义。当我们沉溺于这种思考中而无法自拔时，通常都会走向虚无。"

Beyond: 活著便精彩!

HEXZA: What, When, and Why on It and The Answers from A Minority Shareholder

I've written two articles about Hexza Corporation Bhd: the first one, HEXZA: My Selected Viewpoints Retraced on 09/04/2015 and the second, HEXZA: 2016年最值得期待的十大价值股之一 on 25/01/2016. Some influential authors in i3investors and other places have also written excellent articles, sharing their thoughts on HEXZA. The following links are some well-written articles, which I think are still very readable.

01/12/2015 Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: HEXZA (01/12/2015)
23/11/2015 HEXZA - Post Q1 2016 - Gainvestor 10sai
17/11/2015 HEXZA - Chemical Solution - Gainvestor
03/09/2015 [转贴] Hexza Q4'15 成绩单 - 糊涂
27/07/2015 Hexza gains traction
21/07/2015 Hexza - One Hex Higher - Bonescythe Stock Watch | I3investor
15/02/2015 (Icon) Hexza Corp - Manufacturer of Formaldehyde Based Adhesive and Resins
12/02/2015 [转帖] 价值股精选- Hexza - 糊涂- Good Articles to Share |

This article, my third on HEXZA, "What, When, and Why on It and The Answers from A Minority Shareholder," and perhaps the last of my articles on it appeared in i3investor. Why? My reason is at the end of this article.

So, what come first? The fundamentals from publicly available sources...

What the company is doing?



Then, how's the company financial performance in recent years?




And what about its share price?




Latest Financial Results and Prospects







So now, why HEXZA?



And why not others?


The point is: When it’s still undervalued.

Why it's still undervalued? By the way, read the copy and paste from the Star, "In the late 1990s, the stock was among the favourites trading at above RM2.50 before collapsing alongside concerns that valuations of the entire stock market had run ahead of fundamentals."  Yes, HEXZA has been undervalued for so many years. An article on HEXZA written in Mandarin gives these reasons: low profile management and under-covered/under- researched by investors, google this if you're interested and know Mandarin [股海宝藏：管理层作风低调投资者未详加研究 喜兹泽仍落后大市 2009/08/04].

The above-mentioned reasons might be well accepted at that time. But a lot of things have changed since then. We've seen that the top management has done some remarkable efforts to improve the company's top- and bottom-line and its financial position, as highlighted above.

As mentioned above, some influential authors in i3investors and other places have also written excellent articles, sharing their thoughts on HEXZA.

So, why it's still undervalued?
The possible explanation could be, as of now, we haven't seen a prominent investor that has accumulated enough shares and the timing for him/her to push the share price up is yet to come.
Why am I saying so? Few years back, I bought some GTRONIC at around 90 cents, PBA at around 90 cents, LCTH at 12-25 cents, Latitude at around 70 cents, just to name a few. And then, when those stocks flying high and skyrocketing, you guess who is in?

Now let's take a look at the shareholders statistics for the past 15 years or so.

No. of shareholders: 16667 (10-04-2001)... 10170 (28-09-2009), 8874 (28-09-2012), 8578 (01-10-21013), 8418 (26-09-2014), 8162 (30-09-2015), *check for 2016* Note: up or down? What does it means and why?  

See the latest annual report for the top-30. Who you guess will be the next prominent investor in HEXZA?

What else?

I googled “HEXZA” and “Hexza Corporation BHD, and found the following.




With all the above, what should be the fair price of HEXZA? I think it's worth at least RM1.10 per share, as its NTA and that's above 4% dividend yield, well above the fixed deposit.

Just for sharing.

By Bugle

HEXZA: 2016年最值得期待的十大价值股之一

HEXZA: 2016年最值得期待的十大价值股之一

Author: bugle   |   Publish date: Mon, 25 Jan 2016, 05:24 AM 

回顾2016年首三周的交易日，先是"欧美中港日新等"的股市大幅度下跌，及过后的小幅度回弹，到上星期五的大幅度上升，实在是考验价值投资者的信念，其当时所做买卖之决策，及往后的成果。平时工作忙碌，大部分时间都在做股票分析，思考，及买卖，没闲情花时间去写文章。况且，小弟只是小户一个，资金有限，没能力推高股价，也没必要去大作文章，希望小弟所持有的股票，可以在文章刊登后，卖个好价钱，套利走人。但我认为某些人确实是为此目的而来。小心为妙啊!高价买入好股，价值股，还可以守。高价追高炒股，烂臭股，后果必是两头不到岸：砍又不是，补又不是!

免责声明：写此文章之目的主要是“自己写，自己爽，及与你分享”，无它。当然，如果看了此文章而有点“爽”或有高见，谢click “like” 一下，或留言。买卖决定之后果，自负。

今天选择HEXZA, 主要它是我心目中2016年最值得期待的十大价值股之一。

什么价值股？

深入的解释，google一下，百度百科找到的是：“所谓价值股（value stock）是指相对于它们的现有收益，股价被低估（priced low）的一类股票。这类股票通常具有低市盈率（P/E ratio）与市净率(P/B ratio)、高股息（dividend）的特征。”我所选择的价值股一般上是一些没有欠债的公司，现金多，持有其它公司股票或金融资产，有地，有厂，有赚钱的生意，有比存放银行高的股息。酱好，那价钱一定不便宜咯！一般上，是的。你看GTRONIC, SHL, BURSA，PCHEM, HIL, KULIM, CSCSTEL, 等等。所以，重点是：当它的股价被低估时！小弟之前买入GTRONIC时才一块左右，买入SHL时块三钱左右，买入HIL时才四毛左右，买入KULIM时3.1-3.2，跌着下，补着下，补到2.50左右。我写关于KULIM的文章，按这边Stock Valuation 股票“估”价之SKL on KULIM, HEXZA, and PBA。大概一块赚一块，卖出GTRONIC和SHL后，自以为是卖到很好的价钱，自己暗爽。过后才发觉自己做了傻子，经验不够，少赚了两三倍及多年来丰厚的股息。其实，留着一部分不卖也没关系，反正是免费的。所以，这一次不会那么轻易让HEXZA“走鸡”，虽然那天马股大跌，信心有点动摇。我不是怕它跌，我是怕卖了买不回比我卖的价钱低。这些是，到目前，成功的例子。暂时失败，纸上亏损的有KFIMA, EKSONS, 等等。

为什么HEXZA？

重点还是：当它的股价被低估时！我相信，有做功课的投资者应该都有同感。再google一下"HEXZA", 找到以下相关文章：

01/12/2015	Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: HEXZA (01/12/2015)
23/11/2015	HEXZA - Post Q1 2016 - Gainvestor 10sai
17/11/2015	HEXZA - Chemical Solution
03/09/2015  27/07/2015 21/07/2015 09/04/2015 12/02/2015	[转贴] Hexza Q4'15 成绩单 - 糊涂 Hexza gains traction Hexza - One Hex Higher - Bonescythe Stock Watch | I3investor HEXZA: My Selected Viewpoints Retraced [转帖] 价值股精选- Hexza - 糊涂- Good Articles to Share |

随便google一下，就找到八篇发表于2015的文章。09/04/2015那篇是小弟写的。八篇文章里所写的都指向一个共同点：就是HEXZA的股价被低估了。被低估的原因，来来去去就是那几个，copy and paste 之前我写的：

“Yes, good stock! Worth to accumulate, and of course, the lower the better, for the following reasons:

As at 30 June 2014, the latest publicly made available info:
1. Cash and cash equivalents + Other Investment (mainly quoted shares) = RM 130,573,000.00 or 65 cents per share.
2. Total retained profits: RM 109,563,000.00 or 55 cents per share.
3. Net assets per share: RM 1.08
4. Forthcoming dividend: 4 cents per share or 5% dividend yield
*5. No. of shareholders: 16,667 (10-04-2001)... 10,170 (28-09-2009), 8,874 (28-09-2012), 8,578 (01-10-21013), *check for 2014* Note: up or down? What does it means and why?

Perhaps, some traders made money, but serious investors see value. Good luck!”

顺便更新一下最新的股东人数：As at 30/09/2015, 8,162. 这我们不需要高深的统计学去分析股东人数的分布。一看数据就知道是散户卖票走人，大户慢慢地在收票。大户是谁？为什么一直买进？原因应该还是：它被低估了！

回到我的主题: HEXZA : 2016年最值得期待的十大价值股之一

期待什么？

1. EPS 会比去年高，相当肯定！

2. DPS会比去年高，主席讲的。

From HEXZA 2015 ANNUAL REPORTREPORT， pg 12.

Dividend

The Board of Directors is pleased to recommend a first and final single-tier dividend of 4.5 sen per share or 9.0% in respect of the financial year ended 30th June, 2015 which is subject to the approval of the shareholders at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting. The proposed dividend represents an increase of 12.5% over the dividend paid in respect of the previous year. The dividend in respect of the previous financial year of 4.0 sen per share or 8.0% was paid on 10th December, 2014.

The recommended dividend payout represents a distribution of approximately 80% of the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the Company. The payout ratio is about the same as the previous financial year, which was also about 80%. The dividend payment as a percentage of Group profits attributable to shareholders is 64.3% for the reporting financial year compared to 99.2% in the previous year. It is the aim of the Directors to maintain a policy of stable dividend payout to the shareholders.

3. 如果1和2都相当肯定，股价再冲新高，那应该都是我们这些默默守候的价值型小股东所期待的吧。但愿如此！

小弟先写2016的第一篇跟大家分享。相信陆续有来。让我们一起来期待吧！如果熊要来，我就认了。

Just for sharing.

By Bugle